{"id":3378,"date":"2026-06-05T19:58:36","date_gmt":"2026-06-05T17:58:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/neuraldesigner.com\/blog\/colon-cancer-liver-metastasis\/"},"modified":"2026-07-01T15:43:41","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T13:43:41","slug":"metastasis-risk-colon-cancer","status":"publish","type":"blog","link":"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/blog\/metastasis-risk-colon-cancer\/","title":{"rendered":"Metastasis risk assessment using machine learning"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"3378\" class=\"elementor elementor-3378\" data-elementor-post-type=\"blog\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-4c4d0fc8 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"4c4d0fc8\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-75140aa1\" data-id=\"75140aa1\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ccff382 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"ccff382\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section>Advancements in the field of medicine have paved the way for innovative approaches to cancer care, and one such groundbreaking avenue is the use of machine learning for metastasis risk assessment in colon cancer patients.<\/section><section><span style=\"color: var( --e-global-color-text ); font-family: var( --e-global-typography-text-font-family ), Sans-serif; font-size: var( --e-global-typography-text-font-size ); font-weight: var( --e-global-typography-text-font-weight );\"><br><\/span><\/section><section><span style=\"color: var( --e-global-color-text ); font-family: var( --e-global-typography-text-font-family ), Sans-serif; font-size: var( --e-global-typography-text-font-size ); font-weight: var( --e-global-typography-text-font-weight );\">This example assesses the risk of a patient with colorectal cancer of developing liver metastasis. <\/span><span style=\"color: var( --e-global-color-text ); font-family: var( --e-global-typography-text-font-family ), Sans-serif; font-size: var( --e-global-typography-text-font-size ); font-weight: var( --e-global-typography-text-font-weight );\">We use mutational data from 492 genes and phenotypic variables using machine learning.<\/span><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section><br><\/section><section>This data is obtained from MSK-MET (Memorial Sloan Kettering &#8211; Metastatic Events and Tropisms),<br>an integrated pan-cancer cohort of tumor genomic and clinical outcome data from 25,000 patients available at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbioportal.org\/\">Cbioportal<\/a>.<\/section>\n<section>\n<h3>Contents<\/h3>\n<ol>\n<li><a href=\"#ApplicationType\">Application type<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#DataSet\">Data set<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#NeuralNetwork\">Neural network<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#TrainingStrategy\">Training strategy<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#ModelSelection\">Model selection<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#TestingAnalysis\">Testing analysis<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#ModelDeployment\">Model deployment<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><br><\/p><p>This example is solved with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/\">Neural Designer<\/a>. You can follow it step by step using the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/downloads\/\">free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section>\n<h2>1. Application type<\/h2>\n<p>The predicted variable can have two values, &#8220;yes&#8221; if the patient has liver metastasis and &#8220;no&#8221; otherwise.<br>Therefore, this is a binary <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/neural-networks-applications#Classification\">classification<\/a> project.<\/p>\n<p>The goal is to model the probability of metastasis in the liver based on mutational and phenotypic data using artificial intelligence and machine learning.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section>\n<h2>2. Data set<\/h2>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/files\/datasets\/liver_metastasis_colon_cancer.csv\">liver_metastasis_colon_cancer.csv<\/a> file contains the data for this example. Target variables can only have two values in a classification model: 0 (false, no) or 1 (true, yes). The number of instances (rows) in the data set is 3537, and the number of variables (columns) is 510.<\/p>\n<p>The number of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/data-set#InputVariables\">input variables<\/a>, or attributes for each sample, is 509. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/data-set#TargetVariables\">target variable<\/a> is 1, distant_metastasis_liver (Yes or No), whether or not the patient has liver metastasis. The following list summarizes the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/data-set#Variables\">variable&#8217;s<\/a> information:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>age_at_first_metastasis_diagnostic<\/b>: age of first metastasis diagnostic.<\/li>\n<li><b>age_at_surgical_procedure<\/b>: age of surgical procedure.<\/li>\n<li><b>cancer_type_detailed<\/b>: cancer type detailed (colon, rectal, colorectal).<\/li>\n<li><b>mortality_3_years<\/b>: whether or not the patient is alive at time 3 years since their cancer is sequenced.<\/li>\n<li><b>fraction_genome_altered<\/b>: percentage of the genome affected by copy number gains or losses.<\/li>\n<li><b>metastasis_count<\/b>: total number of metastases.<\/li>\n<li><b>metastasis_primary_site_count<\/b>: number of metastases in the primary site.<\/li>\n<li><b>microsatellite_instability_score<\/b>: score regarding the microsatellite instability status.<\/li>\n<li><b>microsatellite_instability_type<\/b>: category for the microsatellite instability assigned based on the msi_score; stable, instable or indeterminate.<\/li>\n<li><b>mutation_count<\/b>: total number of mutated genes from the panel.<\/li>\n<li><b>primary_tumor_site<\/b>: histological localization of the tumor.<\/li>\n<li><b>race_category<\/b>: ethnicity of the patient.<\/li>\n<li><b>sex<\/b>: male or female.<\/li>\n<li><b>cancer_subtype<\/b>: tumor subdivision between microsatellite stable or microsatellite hypermutated.<\/li>\n<li><b>tumour_mutational_burden<\/b>: tumor mutational burden of the total number of non-synonymous somatic mutations identified (those changes in the DNA result in changes in the protein.<\/li>\n<li><b>tumor_purity<\/b>: proportion of cancer cells in the tumor tissue.<\/li>\n<li><b>gene_panel<\/b>: 492 gene panel with the times that a gene is mutated.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><br><\/p><p>To start, we use all <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/data-set#Instances\">instances<\/a>. Each instance contains the input and target variables of a different patient.<br>The data set is divided into training, validation, and testing subsets. Neural Designer automatically assigns 60% of the instances for training, 20% for selection, and 20% for testing. The user can choose to modify these values to the desired ones.<!--<\/p>\n<p><b>*<\/b>Statistics for each gene from the panel have not been included in this table to maintain page readability.<\/p>\n<p>--><\/p>\n<p>Also, we can calculate the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/data-set#Distributions\">distributions<\/a> for all variables. The following figure is a pie chart showing which patients had liver metastasis in the data set.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/images\/liver_distant_mets.webp\"><\/p>\n<p>The image shows that metastatic liver tumors represent 57% of the samples, while 43% represent tumors without liver metastases.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/data-set#InputsTargetsCorrelations\">inputs-targets correlations<\/a> might indicate which factors most influence whether a tumor produces liver metastases and, therefore, be more relevant to our analysis.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/images\/liver_met_correlations.webp\"><\/p>\n<p>Here, the most correlated variables with malignant tumors are <b>metastasis_primary_site_count<\/b>, <b>metastasis_count<\/b>, <b>cancer_subtype,<\/b> and <b>microsatellite_instability_score<\/b>.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section>\n<h2>3. Neural network<\/h2>\n<p>The next step is to set up a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/neural-network\">neural network<\/a> to represent the classification function. For this class of applications, the neural network is composed of:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/neural-network#ScalingLayer\">Scaling layer<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/neural-network#PerceptronLayers\">Perceptron layer<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/neural-network#ProbabilisticLayer\">Probabilistic layer<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><br><\/p><p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/neural-network#ScalingLayer\">scaling layer<\/a> contains the statistics on the inputs calculated from the data file and the method for scaling the input variables. Here, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/neural-network#MinimumMaximumScalingMethod\">minimum-maximum method<\/a> has been set. Nevertheless, the mean-standard deviation method would produce very similar results. As we use 497 input variables, the scaling layer has 497 inputs.<\/p>\n<p>We won&#8217;t use a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/neural-network#PerceptronLayers\">perceptron layer<\/a> to stabilize and simplify our model.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/neural-network#ProbabilisticLayer\">probabilistic layer<\/a> only contains the method for interpreting the outputs as probabilities. Moreover, as the output layer&#8217;s activation function is logistic, that output can already be interpreted as a probability of class membership. The probabilistic layer has 497 inputs. It has one output, representing the probability of a sample being a malignant tumor.<\/p>\n<p>The following figure is a graphical representation of this neural network for liver metastasis diagnosis.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/images\/liver_met_neural_network.webp\"><\/p>\n<p>As mentioned above, the network has 497 inputs, from which we obtain a single output value. This value is the probability of liver metastasis for each patient.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section>\n<h2>4. Training strategy<\/h2>\n<p>The fourth step is to set the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/training-strategy\">training strategy<\/a>, which is composed of two terms:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>A loss index.<\/li>\n<li>An optimization algorithm.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><br><\/p><p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/training-strategy#LossIndex\">loss index<\/a> is the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/training-strategy#WeightedSquaredError\">weighted squared error<\/a> with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/training-strategy#L2Regularization\">L2 regularization<\/a>, the default loss index for binary classification applications.<\/p>\n<p>We can state the learning problem as finding a neural network that minimizes the loss index.<br>That is a neural network that fits the data set (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/training-strategy#ErrorTerm\">error term<\/a>) and does not oscillate (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/training-strategy#RegularizationTerm\">regularization term<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/training-strategy#OptimizationAlgorithm\">optimization algorithm<\/a> that we use is the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/training-strategy#QuasiNewtonMethod\">quasi-Newton method<\/a>, which is also the standard optimization algorithm for this type of problem.<\/p>\n<p>The following chart shows how errors decrease with the iterations during training. The final training and selection errors are <b>training error = 0.3969 WSE<\/b> and <b>selection error = 0.8127 WSE<\/b>, respectively.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/images\/liver_met_error.webp\"><\/p>\n<p>As we can see in the previous image, the curves have converged, although the selection error is greater than the training error, so we could continue improving the model to reduce the errors further.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section>\n<h2>5. Model selection<\/h2>\n<p>The objective of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/model-selection\">model selection<\/a> is to find the network architecture that minimizes the error, that is, with the best generalization properties for the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/data-set#SelectionInstances\">selected instances<\/a> of the data set.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/model-selection#OrderSelection\">Order selection<\/a> algorithms train several network architectures with different numbers of neurons and select that with the smallest selection error. We have removed our perceptron layer to stabilize our model, so we cannot use this feature.<\/p>\n<p>However, we will use <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/model-selection#InputsSelection\">input selection<\/a> to select features in the data set that provide the best generalization capabilities.<\/p>\n<p>This method can reduce the training\/selection error in the following image.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/images\/liver_met_input_selection.webp\"><\/p>\n<p>We obtain a <b>training error = 0.6333 WSE<\/b> and a <b>selection error = 0.6264 WSE<\/b>, respectively. Also, we have reduced the number of inputs to only 18 features. Our network is now like this:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/images\/liver_met_network_after_input_selection.webp\"><\/p>\n<p>Our final network has seven inputs corresponding to phenotypic variables and 11 Genes from the panels for 18 input variables. The genes are:&nbsp;<b>KIT<\/b>, <b>CARD11<\/b>, <b>RB1<\/b>, <b>WT1<\/b>, <b>PLCG2<\/b>, <b>DNMT1<\/b>, <b>BRD4<\/b>, <b>PIK3R1<\/b>, <b>IRS2<\/b>, <b>SESN1<\/b>, <b>NPM1<\/b>.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section>\n<h2>6. Testing analysis<\/h2>\n<p>The testing analysis aims&nbsp;to validate the performance of the generalization properties of the trained neural network. To validate a classification technique, we need to compare the values provided by this technique to the observed values. We can use the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/testing-analysis#RocCurve\">ROC curve<\/a> as it is the standard testing method for binary classification projects.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/images\/liver_met_roc_curve.webp\"><\/p>\n<p>A random classifier has an area under a curve of 0.5, while a perfect classifier has a value of 1. The closer this value is to 1, the better the classifier. In this example, this parameter is <b>AUC = 0.85<\/b>, which means an excellent performance.<\/p>\n<p>The following table contains the elements of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/testing-analysis#ConfusionMatrix\">confusion matrix<\/a>. This matrix contains the true positives, false positives, false negatives, and true negatives for the variable diagnosis.<\/p>\n<div style=\"overflow-x: auto;\">\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>&nbsp;<\/th>\n<th>Predicted negative<\/th>\n<th>Predicted positive<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th>Real negative<\/th>\n<td style=\"text-align: right;\">344 (48.7%)<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right;\">69 (9.8%)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th>Real positive<\/th>\n<td style=\"text-align: right;\">86 (12.2%)<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right;\">208 (29.4%)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/testing-analysis#BinaryClassificationTests\">binary classification tests<\/a> are parameters for measuring the performance of a classification problem with two classes:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Classification accuracy<\/b> (ratio of instances correctly classified): 78%<\/li>\n<li><b>Error rate<\/b> (ratio of instances misclassified): 21.9%<\/li>\n<li><b>Specificity<\/b> (ratio of real positives which are predicted positive): 70.7%<\/li>\n<li><b>Sensitivity<\/b> (ratio of real negative which are predicted negative): 83.3%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/section>\n<section>\n<h2>7. Model Deployment<\/h2>\n<p>Once we have tested the neural network&#8217;s generalization performance, we can save it for future use in the so-called <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/model-deployment\">model deployment<\/a> mode.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/model-deployment#MathematicalExpression\">mathematical expression<\/a> represented by the neural network is written below.<\/p>\n<pre>scaled_Colon Adenocarcinoma = Colon Adenocarcinoma*(1+1)\/(1-(0))-0*(1+1)\/(1-0)-1;\nscaled_Rectal Adenocarcinoma = Rectal Adenocarcinoma*(1+1)\/(1-(0))-0*(1+1)\/(1-0)-1;\nscaled_Colorectal Adenocarcinoma = Colorectal Adenocarcinoma*(1+1)\/(1-(0))-0*(1+1)\/(1-0)-1;\nscaled_metastasis_primary_site_count = (metastasis_primary_site_count-3.15437007)\/2.403779984;\nscaled_microsatellite_instability_score = (microsatellite_instability_score-3.579030037)\/9.864089966;\nscaled_Stable = Stable*(1+1)\/(1-(0))-0*(1+1)\/(1-0)-1;\nscaled_Indeterminate = Indeterminate*(1+1)\/(1-(0))-0*(1+1)\/(1-0)-1;\nscaled_Instable = Instable*(1+1)\/(1-(0))-0*(1+1)\/(1-0)-1;\nscaled_Do not report = Do not report*(1+1)\/(1-(0))-0*(1+1)\/(1-0)-1;\nscaled_mutation_count = (mutation_count-13.76679993)\/27.63050079;\nscaled_cancer_subtype = cancer_subtype*(1+1)\/(1-(0))-0*(1+1)\/(1-0)-1;\nscaled_tumour_mutational_burden = (tumour_mutational_burden-12.34119987)\/24.77930069;\nscaled_KIT_mutations_count = (KIT_mutations_count-0.02431439981)\/0.1713950038;\nscaled_CARD11_mutations_count = (CARD11_mutations_count-0.0667231977)\/0.2999680042;\nscaled_RB1_mutations_count = (RB1_mutations_count-0.02685889974)\/0.1964139938;\nscaled_WT1_mutations_count = (WT1_mutations_count-0.01809439994)\/0.1435080022;\nscaled_PLCG2_mutations_count = (PLCG2_mutations_count-0.04156060144)\/0.2185139954;\nscaled_DNMT1_mutations_count = (DNMT1_mutations_count-0.03901610151)\/0.2357760072;\nscaled_BRD4_mutations_count = (BRD4_mutations_count-0.03647160158)\/0.2033720016;\nscaled_PIK3R1_mutations_count = (PIK3R1_mutations_count-0.05597959831)\/0.268456012;\nscaled_IRS2_mutations_count = (IRS2_mutations_count-0.04014699906)\/0.2343810052;\nscaled_SESN1_mutations_count = (SESN1_mutations_count-0.006219959818)\/0.08213800192;\nscaled_NPM1_mutations_count = NPM1_mutations_count*(1+1)\/(1-(0))-0*(1+1)\/(1-0)-1;\n\nprobabilistic_layer_combinations_0 = 0.0150952 +0.157874*scaled_Colon Adenocarcinoma -0.154215*scaled_Rectal Adenocarcinoma -0.0195006*scaled_Colorectal Adenocarcinoma +1.68684*metastasis_primary_site_count +0.158263*scaled_microsatellite_instability_score -0.066526*scaled_Stable +0.547837*scaled_Indeterminate -0.471286*scaled_Instable -0.0375401*scaled_Do not report -0.181048*scaled_mutation_count +0.611953*scaled_cancer_subtype +0.0808695*scaled_tumour_mutational_burden -0.0273534*scaled_KIT_mutations_count +0.0444354*scaled_CARD11_mutations_count +0.0211164*scaled_RB1_mutations_count +0.0739666*scaled_WT1_mutations_count +0.0429152*scaled_PLCG2_mutations_count +0.00816219*scaled_DNMT1_mutations_count -0.138295*scaled_BRD4_mutations_count +0.0240884*scaled_PIK3R1_mutations_count +0.0625585*scaled_IRS2_mutations_count +0.0364737*scaled_SESN1_mutations_count +0.0926002*scaled_NPM1_mutations_count \n            \ndistant_metastasis_liver = 1.0\/(1.0 + exp(-probabilistic_layer_combinations_0);\n<\/pre>\n<p>The above expression can be exported anywhere, for instance, to a dedicated diagnosis software doctors use. It can even be integrated into a website:<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 100%; text-align: center; float: none; margin-top: 30px;\"><a style=\"font-size: 15px; height: auto; width: auto;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/examples\/colon-cancer-liver-metastasis-simulator\">Liver metastasis developing<br>risk simulator &gt;<\/a><\/div>\n<p>Please note that it is impossible to predict the future with certainty, and a physician must always interpret these predictions to make a diagnosis.<\/p>\n<p><!--<\/p>\n<div style=\"overflow-x: auto;\">\n<form onchange=\"neuralNetwork()\">\n<table border=\"1px\" width=\"auto\" class=\"form\">\n<tr>\n<td>Cancer type detailed:<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align:center\">\n                            <select class=\"minimalwhite\" name=\"cancertype\" id=\"cancertype\"><option value=\"0\">Colon Adenocarcinoma<\/option><option value=\"1\">Rectal Adenocarcinoma<\/option><option value=\"2\">Colorectal Adenocarcinoma<\/option><\/select><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height:3.5em\">\n<td>Metastasis primary site count:<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align:center\">\n                            <input type=\"range\" id=\"msc\" value=\"0\" min=\"0\" max=\"15\" step=\"1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'msc_text')\"><br \/><input class=\"tabla\" type=\"number\" id=\"msc_text\" value=\"0\" min=\"0\" max=\"15\" step=\"1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'msc')\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height:3.5em\">\n<td>Microsatellite instability score:<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align:center\">\n                            <input type=\"range\" id=\"msis\" value=\"3.57\" min=\"0\" max=\"55\" step=\"0.01\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'msis_text')\"\/><br \/><input class=\"tabla\" type=\"number\" id=\"msis_text\" value=\"3.57\" min=\"0\" max=\"55\" step=\"0.01\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'msis')\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Microsatellite instability type:<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align:center\">\n                            <select class=\"minimalwhite\" name=\"msitype\" id=\"msitype\"><option value=\"0\">Stable<\/option><option value=\"1\">Indeterminate<\/option><option value=\"2\">Instable<\/option><option value=\"3\">Do not report<\/option><\/select><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height:3.5em\">\n<td>Mutation count:<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align:center\">\n                            <input type=\"range\" id=\"mut\" value=\"13\" min=\"1\" max=\"472\" step=\"1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'mut_text')\"\/><br \/><input class=\"tabla\" type=\"number\" id=\"mut_text\" value=\"13\" min=\"1\" max=\"472\" step=\"1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'mut')\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Cancer subtype:<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align:center\">\n                            <select class=\"minimalwhite\" name=\"subtype\" id=\"subtype\"><option value=\"1\">Colorectal MSS<\/option><option value=\"0\">Colorectal hypermutated<\/option><\/select><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height:3.5em\">\n<td>Tumour mutational burden:<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align:center\">\n                            <input type=\"range\" id=\"tmb\" value=\"12\" min=\"0.8\" max=\"407\" step=\"0.1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'tmb_text')\"\/><br \/><input class=\"tabla\" type=\"number\" id=\"tmb_text\" value=\"12\" min=\"0.8\" max=\"407\" step=\"0.1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'tmb')\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height:3.5em\">\n<td>KIT mutation count:<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align:center\">\n                            <input type=\"range\" id=\"kit\" value=\"0\" min=\"0\" max=\"3\" step=\"1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'kit_text')\"\/><br \/><input class=\"tabla\" type=\"number\" id=\"kit_text\" value=\"0\" min=\"0\" max=\"3\" step=\"1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'kit')\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height:3.5em\">\n<td>CARD11 mutation count:<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align:center\">\n                            <input type=\"range\" id=\"card11\" value=\"0\" min=\"0\" max=\"5\" step=\"1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'card11_text')\"\/><br \/><input class=\"tabla\" type=\"number\" id=\"card11_text\" value=\"0\" min=\"0\" max=\"5\" step=\"1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'card11')\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height:3.5em\">\n<td>RB1 mutation count:<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align:center\">\n                            <input type=\"range\" id=\"rb1\" value=\"0\" min=\"0\" max=\"3\" step=\"1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'rb1_text')\"\/><br \/><input class=\"tabla\" type=\"number\" id=\"rb1_text\" value=\"0\" min=\"0\" max=\"3\" step=\"1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'rb1')\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height:3.5em\">\n<td>WT1 mutation count:<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align:center\">\n                            <input type=\"range\" id=\"wt1\" value=\"0\" min=\"0\" max=\"2\" step=\"1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'wt1_text')\"\/><br \/><input class=\"tabla\" type=\"number\" id=\"wt1_text\" value=\"0\" min=\"0\" max=\"2\" step=\"1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'wt1')\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height:3.5em\">\n<td>PLCG2 mutation count:<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align:center\">\n                            <input type=\"range\" id=\"plcg2\" value=\"0\" min=\"0\" max=\"3\" step=\"1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'plcg2_text')\"\/><br \/><input class=\"tabla\" type=\"number\" id=\"plcg2_text\" value=\"0\" min=\"0\" max=\"3\" step=\"1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'plcg2')\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height:3.5em\">\n<td>DNMT1 mutation count:<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align:center\">\n                            <input type=\"range\" id=\"dnmt1\" value=\"0\" min=\"0\" max=\"6\" step=\"1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'dnmt1_text')\"\/><br \/><input class=\"tabla\" type=\"number\" id=\"dnmt1_text\" value=\"0\" min=\"0\" max=\"6\" step=\"1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'dnmt1')\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height:3.5em\">\n<td>BRD4 mutation count:<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align:center\">\n                            <input type=\"range\" id=\"brd4\" value=\"0\" min=\"0\" max=\"3\" step=\"1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'brd4_text')\"\/><br \/><input class=\"tabla\" type=\"number\" id=\"brd4_text\" value=\"0\" min=\"0\" max=\"3\" step=\"1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'brd4')\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height:3.5em\">\n<td>PIK3R1 mutation count:<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align:center\">\n                            <input type=\"range\" id=\"pik3r1\" value=\"0\" min=\"0\" max=\"3\" step=\"1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'pik3r1_text')\"\/><br \/><input class=\"tabla\" type=\"number\" id=\"pik3r1_text\" value=\"0\" min=\"0\" max=\"3\" step=\"1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'pik3r1')\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height:3.5em\">\n<td>IRS2 mutation count:<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align:center\">\n                            <input type=\"range\" id=\"irs2\" value=\"0\" min=\"0\" max=\"4\" step=\"1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'irs2_text')\"\/><br \/><input class=\"tabla\" type=\"number\" id=\"irs2_text\" value=\"0\" min=\"0\" max=\"4\" step=\"1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'irs2')\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height:3.5em\">\n<td>SESN1 mutation count:<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align:center\">\n                            <input type=\"range\" id=\"sesn1\" value=\"0\" min=\"0\" max=\"2\" step=\"1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'sesn1_text')\"\/><br \/><input class=\"tabla\" type=\"number\" id=\"sesn1_text\" value=\"0\" min=\"0\" max=\"2\" step=\"1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'sesn1')\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height:3.5em\">\n<td>NPM1 mutation count:<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align:center\">\n                            <input type=\"range\" id=\"npm1\" value=\"0\" min=\"0\" max=\"1\" step=\"1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'npm1_text')\"\/><br \/><input class=\"tabla\" type=\"number\" id=\"npm1_text\" value=\"0\" min=\"0\" max=\"1\" step=\"1\" onchange=\"updateTextInput1(this.value, 'npm1')\"><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height:3.5em\">\n<td><b>Liver metastasis:<\/b><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align:right\">\n                            <output name=\"liver\" id=\"liver\" value=\"0\"><b>18.68%<\/b><\/output><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/form>\n<\/div>\n<p><script>\n                function neuralNetwork(){\n                    var cancer_type=document.getElementById(\"cancertype\").value;\n                    var colon;\n                    var rectal;\n                    var colorectal;\n                    if (cancer_type==0){\n                        colon=1;\n                        rectal=0;\n                        colorectal=0;\n                    }else if(cancer_type==1){\n                        colon=0;\n                        rectal=1;\n                        colorectal=0;\n                    }else if(cancer_type==2){\n                        colon=0;\n                        rectal=0;\n                        colorectal=1;\n                    }\n                    var met_site_count=document.getElementById(\"msc\").value;\n                    var msi_score=document.getElementById(\"msis\").value;\n\n                    var msi_type=document.getElementById(\"msitype\").value;\n                    var stable;\n                    var indeterminate;\n                    var instable;\n                    var donotreport;\n                    if (msi_type==0){\n                        stable=1;\n                        indeterminate=0;\n                        instable=0;\n                        donotreport=0;\n                    }else if(msi_type==1){\n                        stable=0;\n                        indeterminate=1;\n                        instable=0;\n                        donotreport=0;\n                    }else if(msi_type==2){\n                        stable=0;\n                        indeterminate=0;\n                        instable=1;\n                        donotreport=0;\n                    }else if(msi_type==3){\n                        stable=0;\n                        indeterminate=0;\n                        instable=0;\n                        donotreport=1;\n                    }\n\n                    var mutation_count=document.getElementById(\"mut\").value;\n                    var subtype=document.getElementById(\"subtype\").value;\n                    var tmb_nonsynonymous=document.getElementById(\"tmb\").value;\n                    var KIT=document.getElementById(\"kit\").value;\n                    var CARD11=document.getElementById(\"card11\").value;\n                    var RB1=document.getElementById(\"rb1\").value;\n                    var WT1=document.getElementById(\"wt1\").value;\n                    var PLCG2=document.getElementById(\"plcg2\").value;\n                    var DNMT1=document.getElementById(\"dnmt1\").value;\n                    var BRD4=document.getElementById(\"brd4\").value;\n                    var PIK3R1=document.getElementById(\"pik3r1\").value;\n                    var IRS2=document.getElementById(\"irs2\").value;\n                    var SESN1=document.getElementById(\"sesn1\").value;\n                    var NPM1=document.getElementById(\"npm1\").value;\n\n                    var scaled_colon= colon*(1+1)\/(1-(0))-0*(1+1)\/(1-0)-1;\n                    var scaled_rectal = rectal*(1+1)\/(1-(0))-0*(1+1)\/(1-0)-1;\n                    var scaled_colorectal = colorectal*(1+1)\/(1-(0))-0*(1+1)\/(1-0)-1;\n                    var scaled_met_site_count = (met_site_count-3.15437007)\/2.403779984;\n                    var scaled_msi_score = (msi_score-3.579030037)\/9.864089966;\n                    var scaled_stable = stable*(1+1)\/(1-(0))-0*(1+1)\/(1-0)-1;\n                    var scaled_indeterminate = indeterminate*(1+1)\/(1-(0))-0*(1+1)\/(1-0)-1;\n                    var scaled_instable = instable*(1+1)\/(1-(0))-0*(1+1)\/(1-0)-1;\n                    var scaled_donotreport = donotreport*(1+1)\/(1-(0))-0*(1+1)\/(1-0)-1;\n                    var scaled_mutation_count = (mutation_count-13.76679993)\/27.63050079;\n                    var scaled_subtype = subtype*(1+1)\/(1-(0))-0*(1+1)\/(1-0)-1;\n                    var scaled_tmb_nonsynonymous = (tmb_nonsynonymous-12.34119987)\/24.77930069;\n                    var scaled_KIT = (KIT-0.02431439981)\/0.1713950038;\n                    var scaled_CARD11 = (CARD11-0.0667231977)\/0.2999680042;\n                    var scaled_RB1 = (RB1-0.02685889974)\/0.1964139938;\n                    var scaled_WT1 = (WT1-0.01809439994)\/0.1435080022;\n                    var scaled_PLCG2 = (PLCG2-0.04156060144)\/0.2185139954;\n                    var scaled_DNMT1 = (DNMT1-0.03901610151)\/0.2357760072;\n                    var scaled_BRD4 = (BRD4-0.03647160158)\/0.2033720016;\n                    var scaled_PIK3R1 = (PIK3R1-0.05597959831)\/0.268456012;\n                    var scaled_IRS2 = (IRS2-0.04014699906)\/0.2343810052;\n                    var scaled_SESN1 = (SESN1-0.006219959818)\/0.08213800192;\n                    var scaled_NPM1 = NPM1*(1+1)\/(1-(0))-0*(1+1)\/(1-0)-1;\n\n                    var probabilistic_layer_combinations_0 = 0.0150952 +0.157874*scaled_colon -0.154215*scaled_rectal -0.0195006*scaled_colorectal +1.68684*scaled_met_site_count +0.158263*scaled_msi_score -0.066526*scaled_stable +0.547837*scaled_indeterminate -0.471286*scaled_instable -0.0375401*scaled_donotreport -0.181048*scaled_mutation_count +0.611953*scaled_subtype +0.0808695*scaled_tmb_nonsynonymous -0.0273534*scaled_KIT +0.0444354*scaled_CARD11 +0.0211164*scaled_RB1 +0.0739666*scaled_WT1 +0.0429152*scaled_PLCG2 +0.00816219*scaled_DNMT1 -0.138295*scaled_BRD4 +0.0240884*scaled_PIK3R1 +0.0625585*scaled_IRS2 +0.0364737*scaled_SESN1 +0.0926002*scaled_NPM1\n\n                    var distant_mets_liver = 1.0\/(1.0 + Math.exp(-probabilistic_layer_combinations_0));\n\n                    document.getElementById(\"liver\").innerHTML = (distant_mets_liver*100).toFixed(2) + \"%\";\n                    document.getElementById(\"final\").innerHTML = (distant_mets_liver*100).toFixed(2) + \"%\";\n                    \/\/document.getElementById(\"liver\").innerHTML = scaled_SESN1;\n                    document.getElementById(\"liver\").style.fontWeight = 'bold';\n                }\n\n                function updateTextInput1(val, id) {\n                    document.getElementById(id).value = val;\n                }\n                <\/script><\/p>\n<p>For the previous patient the risk of developping metastasis in the liver is: <b><output name=\"final\" id=\"final\" value=\"0\"><b>18.68%<\/b><\/output><\/b>.<\/p>\n<p>--><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section>\n<h2>References<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>The data for this problem has been taken from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbioportal.org\/\">cBioportal Repository MSK-MET (Memorial Sloan Kettering &#8211; Metastatic Events and Tropisms) dataset<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/section>\n<section>\n<h2>Related posts<\/h2>\n<\/section>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"author":122,"featured_media":1984,"template":"","categories":[],"tags":[38],"class_list":["post-3378","blog","type-blog","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-healthcare"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Metastasis risk assessment using machine learning<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Use Neural Designer to assess the risk of 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