{"id":3418,"date":"2023-08-31T10:59:21","date_gmt":"2023-08-31T10:59:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/neuraldesigner.com\/blog\/space-missions\/"},"modified":"2025-09-12T17:29:15","modified_gmt":"2025-09-12T15:29:15","slug":"space-missions","status":"publish","type":"blog","link":"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/blog\/space-missions\/","title":{"rendered":"Predict failure of space flights using machine learning"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In this example, we build a machine learning model to predict whether a space flight succeeds or fails based on variables related to the mission.<\/p>\n<p>Space missions have evolved greatly since the first launch in 1957.<\/p>\n<p>Today, they are carried out by governments, private companies, and international organizations, aiming to explore the solar system and beyond.<\/p>\n<p>These missions push the limits of science and technology while expanding human presence beyond Earth.<\/p>\n<p>This example is solved with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/\">Neural Designer<\/a>. To follow it step by step, you can use the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/free-trial\">free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n<section>\n<h3>Contents<\/h3>\n<ol>\n<li><a href=\"#ApplicationType\">Application type<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#DataSet\">Data set<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#NeuralNetwork\">Neural network<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#TrainingStrategy\">Training strategy<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#ModelSelection\">Model selection<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#TestingAnalysis\">Testing analysis<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#ModelDeployment\">Model deployment<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/section>\n<section>\n<h2>1. Application type<\/h2>\n<p>The variable to be predicted is binary. Therefore, this is a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/neural-networks-applications#Classification\">classification<\/a> project.<\/p>\n<p>The main goal is to model the state of the mission as a function of variables such as temperature, nature of the payload, payload target orbit, etc.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section>\n<h2>2. Dataset<\/h2>\n<p>The first step is to prepare the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/data-set\">dataset<\/a>, which is the source of information for the classification problem. It is composed of:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"#DataSource\">Data source<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#Variable\">Variables<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#Sample\">Samples<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Data source<\/h3>\n<p>The file <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/space_missions.csv\">space_missions.csv<\/a> contains the data for this example. Here, the number of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/data-set#Variables\">variables<\/a> (columns) is 33, and the number of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/data-set#Samples\">samples<\/a> (rows) is 166.<\/p>\n<h3>Variables<\/h3>\n<p>Below, we describe each variable:<\/p>\n<h4>Categorical variables<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"104\" data-end=\"280\"><strong data-start=\"104\" data-end=\"115\">company<\/strong> \u2013 Space company carrying out the flight (7 categories: SpaceX, Boeing, US Air Force, European Space Agency, Brazilian Space Agency, Arianespace, Martin Marietta).<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"283\" data-end=\"383\"><strong data-start=\"283\" data-end=\"299\">vehicle_type<\/strong> \u2013 Type of rocket vehicle (6 categories: Ariane, Delta, Falcon, Titan, VLS, Vega).<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"386\" data-end=\"650\"><strong data-start=\"386\" data-end=\"403\">payload_orbit<\/strong> \u2013 Target orbit for the payload (11 categories: Earth-Moon L2, Geostationary Transfer Orbit, Heliocentric Orbit, High Earth Orbit, Medium Earth Orbit, Low Earth Orbit, Mars Orbit, Polar Orbit, Suborbital, Sun-Synchronous Orbit, Sun\/Earth Orbit).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>Numerical variables<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"750\" data-end=\"799\"><strong data-start=\"750\" data-end=\"767\">temperature_f<\/strong> \u2013 Temperature at launch (\u00b0F).<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"802\" data-end=\"852\"><strong data-start=\"802\" data-end=\"820\">wind_speed_mph<\/strong> \u2013 Wind speed at launch (mph).<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"855\" data-end=\"899\"><strong data-start=\"855\" data-end=\"871\">humidity_pct<\/strong> \u2013 Humidity at launch (%).<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"902\" data-end=\"955\"><strong data-start=\"902\" data-end=\"923\">liftoff_thrust_kn<\/strong> \u2013 Rocket liftoff thrust (kN).<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"958\" data-end=\"1008\"><strong data-start=\"958\" data-end=\"981\">payload_to_orbit_kg<\/strong> \u2013 Payload to orbit (kg).<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1011\" data-end=\"1053\"><strong data-start=\"1011\" data-end=\"1030\">rocket_height_m<\/strong> \u2013 Rocket height (m).<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1056\" data-end=\"1111\"><strong data-start=\"1056\" data-end=\"1078\">fairing_diameter_m<\/strong> \u2013 Rocket fairing diameter (m).<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1114\" data-end=\"1156\"><strong data-start=\"1114\" data-end=\"1133\">payload_mass_kg<\/strong> \u2013 Payload mass (kg).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>Target variables<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"651\" data-end=\"716\">\n<p data-start=\"653\" data-end=\"716\"><strong data-start=\"653\" data-end=\"671\">mission_status<\/strong> \u2013 Target variable: <em data-start=\"691\" data-end=\"700\">success<\/em> or <em data-start=\"704\" data-end=\"713\">failure<\/em>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Of the 33 variables, 32 are used as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/data-set#InputVariables\">inputs<\/a>, and the mission status variable is the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/data-set#TargetVariables\">target variable<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h3>Samples<\/h3>\n<p>On the other hand, the dataset has 166 samples, and we split them randomly into 60% <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/data-set#TrainingInstances\">training<\/a>, 20% <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/data-set#SelectionInstances\">selection<\/a>, and 20% <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/data-set#TestingInstances\">testing<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>That gives us 90 samples for training, 30 for validation, and 30 for testing.<\/p>\n<p>Once all the data set information has been set, we will perform some analytics to check the quality of the data.<\/p>\n<p>For instance, we can calculate the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/data-set#Distributions\">data distribution<\/a>. The following figure depicts the pie chart for the target variable.<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/images\/space-mission-status-piechart.webp\" alt=\"For the model we built to predict whether the space flight will be a success or a failure, we obtained a chart that illustrates the target 'mission_status' dependency with the 10 input columns with greatest correlation in the data set.\" width=\"600\" height=\"350\" \/><\/p>\n<p>As we can see, the following chart illustrates the target &#8216;mission_status&#8217; dependency with the 10 input columns with the greatest correlation in the data set.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/data-set#InputsTargetsCorrelations\">input-target correlations<\/a>\u00a0might help us see the different inputs&#8217; influence on the mission status.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/images\/space-mission-status-Pearson-correlations-chart.webp\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The chart above shows that the company has the most substantial impact on mission status, with a correlation of 0.667.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section>\n<h2>3. Neural network<\/h2>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/neural-network\">neural network<\/a> will output the mission status as a function of the input variables described in the previous section.<\/p>\n<p>For this classification example, the neural network is composed of:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/neural-network#ScalingLayer\">scaling layer<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/neural-network#PerceptronLayers\">perceptron layer<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/neural-network#ProbabilisticLayer\">probabilistic layer<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/neural-network#ScalingLayer\">scaling layer<\/a> contains the statistics on the input calculated from the data file and the method for scaling the input variables. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/neural-network#MinimumMaximumScalingMethod\">minimum and maximum scaling methods<\/a> are set here, but the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/neural-network#MinimumMaximumScalingMethod\">mean and standard deviation scaling <\/a>methods produce\u00a0similar results.<\/p>\n<p>Initially, the number of inputs is 32, and there are 2 neurons in the perceptron layer, with the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/neural-network#HyperbolicTangentActivationFunction\">hyperbolic tangent as the activation function<\/a>. The generalization study will eliminate variables that do not improve the predictive capabilities of the neural network from the scaling layer. It may also adjust the number of neurons in the perceptron layer until it finds the optimal complexity.<\/p>\n<p>The next figure is the initial <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/neural-network#NetworkArchitecture\">neural network architecture<\/a> used in this example.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/images\/space-mission-status-Network-architecture.webp\" alt=\"Neural network for the model that predict failure space flight. It has 32 inputs, and 2 neurons in the perceptron layer.\" width=\"608\" height=\"2400\" \/><\/p>\n<section>The number of inputs is 32, and the number of outputs is 1.The yellow circles show scaling neurons, the blue circles show perceptron neurons, and the red circles show probabilistic neurons.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section>\n<h2>4. Training strategy<\/h2>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/training-strategy\">training strategy<\/a> is applied to the neural network to obtain the best possible performance. It is composed of two things:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>A <a href=\"#LossIndex\">loss index<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>An <a href=\"#OptimizationAlgorithm\">optimization algorithm<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Loss index<\/h3>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/training-strategy#ErrorTerm\">error term<\/a> fits the neural network to the training instances of the data set.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/training-strategy#RegularizationTerm\">regularization term<\/a> makes the model more stable and improves generalization, so our model will be more predictive.<\/p>\n<p>The selected <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/training-strategy#LossIndex\">loss index<\/a> is the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/training-strategy#WeightedSquaredError\">weighted squared error (WSE)<\/a>\u00a0with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/training-strategy#L2Regularization\">L2 regularization<\/a>\u00a0because, in this problem, the target samples aren&#8217;t balanced, as there are more cases where the mission status is 1 than where it&#8217;s 0.<\/p>\n<h3>Optimization algorithm<\/h3>\n<p>The selected <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/training-strategy#OptimizationAlgorithm\">optimization algorithm<\/a> that minimizes the loss index is the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/training-strategy#QuasiNewtonMethod\">quasi-Newton method<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The following table shows the operators, parameters, and stopping criteria of the quasi-Newton method used in this study.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/images\/space-mission-status-Optimization-algorithm.webp\" \/><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section>\n<h2>5. Model selection<\/h2>\n<p>The objective of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/model-selection\">model selection<\/a> is to find the network architecture with the best generalization properties.<\/p>\n<p>That is, we want to improve the final selection error by changing the number of inputs or the number of neurons in the perceptron layer.<\/p>\n<p>The best selection error is achieved using a model whose complexity is the most appropriate to produce a better data fit.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/model-selection#OrderSelection\">Order selection<\/a>\u00a0algorithms are responsible for finding the optimal number of perceptron neurons in the neural networks.<\/p>\n<p><!--\n\nThe following chart shows the error history for a different number of inputs in the scaling layer.\nThe chart shows that the optimal number of inputs is 4 (company, vehicle type, lift off thrust and fairing diameter).\n\n<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/images\/space-mission-status-selection-errors-plot.webp\" \/>\n\nThe following chart shows the error history for a different number of neurons in the perceptron layer.\nThe chart shows that the optimal number of neurons with minimun selection error is 2.\n\n<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/images\/space-mission-estatus-selection errors plot-2.webp\" \/>\n\n--><\/p>\n<p>After performing neuron selection and input selection, the model is set at an optimal 2 neurons in the perceptron layer and 4 inputs in the scaling layer (company, vehicle type, lift-off thrust, and fairing diameter).<\/p>\n<p>The following chart shows how the training error (blue) and selection error (orange) decrease with the training epochs.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/images\/space-mission-status-Quasi-Newton-method-errors-history.webp\" \/><\/p>\n<article class=\"text-token-text-primary w-full focus:outline-none scroll-mt-[calc(var(--header-height)+min(200px,max(70px,20svh)))]\" dir=\"auto\" tabindex=\"-1\" data-turn-id=\"request-68c14edc-00d8-832b-af79-36da58cd2575-31\" data-testid=\"conversation-turn-192\" data-scroll-anchor=\"true\" data-turn=\"assistant\">\n<div class=\"text-base my-auto mx-auto pb-10 [--thread-content-margin:--spacing(4)] thread-sm:[--thread-content-margin:--spacing(6)] thread-lg:[--thread-content-margin:--spacing(16)] px-(--thread-content-margin)\">\n<div class=\"[--thread-content-max-width:40rem] thread-sm:[--thread-content-max-width:40rem] thread-lg:[--thread-content-max-width:48rem] mx-auto max-w-(--thread-content-max-width) flex-1 group\/turn-messages focus-visible:outline-hidden relative flex w-full min-w-0 flex-col agent-turn\" tabindex=\"-1\">\n<div class=\"flex max-w-full flex-col grow\">\n<div class=\"min-h-8 text-message relative flex w-full flex-col items-end gap-2 text-start break-words whitespace-normal [.text-message+&amp;]:mt-5\" dir=\"auto\" data-message-author-role=\"assistant\" data-message-id=\"e4b438a4-e489-4ac6-bfb0-5279f76abd66\" data-message-model-slug=\"gpt-5\">\n<div class=\"flex w-full flex-col gap-1 empty:hidden first:pt-[3px]\">\n<div class=\"markdown prose dark:prose-invert w-full break-words light markdown-new-styling\">\n<p data-start=\"0\" data-end=\"91\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">After 42 epochs, the final errors are 0.259 NSE for training and 0.040 NSE for validation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"flex min-h-[46px] justify-start\">The following figure shows the final network architecture for this application after optimizing our model.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/images\/space-mission-status-Network-architecture-optimized.webp\" alt=\"Neural network architecture for this application after optimizing the model that predict failure space flight. It has 15 inputs, and 2 neurons in the perceptron layer.\" width=\"689\" height=\"745\" \/><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section>\n<h2>6. Testing analysis<\/h2>\n<p>The objective of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/testing-analysis\">testing analysis<\/a> is to validate the generalization performance of the trained neural network. The testing compares the values provided by this technique to the observed values.<\/p>\n<h3>Roc curve<\/h3>\n<p>A good measure of the precision of a binary classification model is the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/testing-analysis#RocCurve\">ROC curve<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/images\/space-mission-ROC-chart.webp\" \/><\/p>\n<p>We are interested in the area under the curve (AUC). A perfect classifier would have an AUC=1, and a random one would have an AUC=0.5. Our model has an <b>AUC\u00a0<\/b><span style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;\">of<strong>\u00a00.882<\/strong>, which is a good indicator of our model&#8217;s performance<\/span>.<\/p>\n<h3>Confusion matrix<\/h3>\n<p>We can also look at the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/testing-analysis#ConfusionMatrix\">confusion matrix<\/a>. Next, we show the elements of this matrix:<\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th><\/th>\n<th>Predicted positive<\/th>\n<th>Predicted negative<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th>Real positive<\/th>\n<td style=\"text-align: right;\">24 (80.0%)<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right;\">0 (0.0%)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th>Real negative<\/th>\n<td style=\"text-align: right;\">2 (6.7%)<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right;\">4 (13.3%)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h3>Binary classification metrics<\/h3>\n<p>From the above confusion matrix, we can calculate the following <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/learning\/tutorials\/testing-analysis#BinaryClassificationTests\">binary classification tests<\/a>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Classification accuracy: 93.3%<\/b> (ratio of correctly classified samples).<\/li>\n<li><b>Error rate: 6.7%<\/b> (ratio of misclassified samples).<\/li>\n<li><b>Sensitivity:100%<\/b> (percentage of actual positives classified as positive).<\/li>\n<li><b>Specificity: 66.7%<\/b> (percentage of actual negatives classified as negative).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/section>\n<section>\n<h2>7. Model deployment<\/h2>\n<p>After testing, the model is ready to estimate the mission status of new space missions with satisfactory quality over the same data range.<\/p>\n<p>To classify any given star, we calculate the neural network outputs from the different variables: temperature, luminosity, relative radius, absolute magnitude, color, and spectral class.<\/p>\n<p>For example, if we introduce the following values for each input:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Company<\/b>: Boeing<\/li>\n<li><b>Vehicle Type<\/b>: delta<\/li>\n<li><b>Liftoff Thrust (kN)<\/b>: 5668.36<\/li>\n<li><b>Fairing Diameter (m)<\/b>: 4.25<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Mission status<\/b>: 0.9=success<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The model predicts a mission_status value of 0.9, which means that the mission is a <b>success<\/b> for those variables.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section>\n<h2>References<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.kaggle.com\/datasets\/rosetabares\/spacemissionsflightstatus\">Space missions data set<\/a> from the Kaggle repository.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/section>\n<section>\n<h2>Related posts<\/h2>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":1505,"template":"","categories":[],"tags":[50],"class_list":["post-3418","blog","type-blog","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-aerospace"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Predict failure of space flights using machine learning<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Build a machine learning model to predict whether the space flights in outer space will be a success or a failure.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.neuraldesigner.com\/blog\/space-missions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" 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